Each year I have the honor of picking the top winners and losers in the world of bioethics. Some years are easier than others. Sometimes it is easy to find losers but more difficult to pick winners. But this year the deck was pretty even. Maybe one year there will be a year when there are no losers. But I’m not holding my breath!
 

Winners:

Olivia Pratten: Born via anonymous sperm donation, Olivia took on and successfully changed Canadian Law, banning anonymous egg and sperm donation. Of course, this has been immediately challenged. We will continue watching this case.

Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine: This institute is making great progress in adult stem cell research with advances such as growing organs in petri dishes, using the patient’s own stem cells, engineering heart valves, and advances in treating diabetes by engineering pancreatic beta cells from amniotic fluid.

The Vatican: Putting their money where their mouth is, the Vatican has partnered with NeoStem, “To foster the highest levels of scientific research on Adult Stem Cells and to explore the cultural, ethical, and human implications of their use.” Unlike Geron Corporation (a loser, below), the best way forward, always, is ethical scientific progress.

Eggsploitation: Tooting our horn, Eggsploitation won Best Documentary at the 2011 California Independent Film Festival, has been sold into over 20 countries, and is currently being translated into Italian. It continues to educate young women who are being targeted with large sums of money to engage is risky behavior.
 

Losers:

Geron: In February of 2009, Geron Corporation enthusiastically announced the FDA’s approval of their Phase 1 clinical trial, injecting human embryonic stem cells into patients with new spinal cord injuries. Less than 12 months later, Geron announced it was abandoning the field due to “capital scarcity and uncertain economic conditions.” Truth is, human embryonic stem cell research is ethically problematic and insiders say treatments, if ever, are a long way off.

Euthanasia Coaster: A hypothetical (for now) ride that boasts: “The three-minute ride involves a long, slow, climb — nearly a third of a mile long — that lifts one up to a height of more than 1,600 feet, followed by a massive fall and seven strategically sized and placed loops. The final descent and series of loops take all of one minute. But the gravitational force — 10 Gs — from the spinning loops at 223 miles per hour in that single minute is lethal.” Turning a roller coaster into literally the final ride of your life is a real loser.

Planet Hospital: Advancing the phenomenon of outsourcing pregnancy as just another job, Planet Hospital goes so far as to offer the “India Bundle,” an ‘affordable’ package deal that gives would-be parents an egg donor, four surrogates for four embryo transfers, room and board for the surrogate during the pregnancy, and transportation services for the parents to go to India and pick up the baby.

Theresa Erickson: An internationally renowned surrogacy lawyer in Southern California, Erickson pled guilty to being a co-conspirator in a three-ring baby-selling scheme. Erickson’s ring included Maryland based attorney, Hilary Neiman. Neiman was sentenced to five months in federal prison and seven months to home confinement. Erickson is scheduled to be sentenced in late January.

Fresh off a very successful year of predicting the future in 2011, I now find myself forced to once again risk my laurels, peer into my crystal ball, and tell you what will happen in the world of bioethics in 2012. What I foresee hurts my eyes and my heart, but a prophet must be honest. Please remember, the following predictions are what I see happening. They do not reflect what I want to happen.

Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare

President Obama has not exactly been “The Bioethics President.” For the most part, his administration has seemed to downplay bioethical controversies and agendas.

The one notable exception—to use a much understated word—was passage in 2010 of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), or Obamacare, as it is generally known. The ACA is truly a transformative law. If it goes into full effect, it will alter in predictable and unforeseen ways the federal government’s relationship to the people, for better or for worse—depending on one’s point of view—centralizing the control over health care coverage and funding into the federal bureaucracy, and perhaps setting the stage for a future “single payer” type system throughout the country.

But Obamacare is not a done deal. It remains unpopular in most opinion polls, with some showing a majority for repeal. It is also mired in legal wrangling, with a case to be heard this spring in the Supreme Court of the United States to determine whether the law is, in whole or in part, unconstitutional.

So what will happen to Obamacare this year?

Prediction 1: Obamacare will not be repealed legislatively in 2012. Well, duh. The current government won’t repeal it, and the next one won’t come into being until 2013. Okay, okay. I’ll get onto something you don’t know.

Prediction 2: Obamacare’s Individual Mandate Will Be Declared Constitutional. This is the most important issue facing bioethics for 2012, so without turning this essay into a law review article, please let me explain my reasoning. The ACA legally requires all Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty fine (a tax, according to the administration), known for purposes of discussion as the “individual mandate.” The argument over the individual mandate essentially boils down to apples versus oranges, law versus policy.

• Those who think the mandate is unconstitutional argue that the government does not have the constitutional authority to force Americans to buy anything, and indeed that such a legal compulsion is unprecedented in American history.
   
• Stripped of its legal mumbo jumbo, defenders of Obamacare argue that the mandate is necessary policy, because without the mandate people will wait until they are sick before buying insurance, which would collapse the system financially.
   
• In my view, both assertions are correct.

That should mean the Supremes will rule against the mandate, right? No. Let me explain.

The Supreme Court has vastly expanded the power of the federal government since the 1930s. In so doing, the justices have often based their decisions as much on policy as on law—and then fashioned legal justifications to back up their decisions (which, in turn, become springboards for further federal expansion). Some call this phenomenon “judicial legislation,” but we won’t get into that here. Moreover, the justices generally come from what is sometimes called the “ruling class,”—people who graduated Yale, Harvard, Princeton, etc.—people who have faith in “experts” and technocratic solutions to societal problems. The rulings of the Court on controversial social and political issues often reflect the views of this subset of Americans more than those of the general population (not that the opinions of either should be relevant). While polls generally show a majority of Americans opposing Obamacare, the ruling class tends to support it.

With the above in mind, I believe the majority of the Supreme Court will rule that Obamacare’s purposes are laudable, that universal coverage is equitable and necessary for the country’s future, and that since the mandate is a necessary element of making the new law work, it is constitutional. That may sound like bootstrapping, but there it is.

My big clue was a November 2011 decision validating the individual mandate written by conservative Reagan-appointed Appeals Court Judge Lawrence Silverman. To wit: “The right to be free from federal regulation is not absolute and yields to the imperative that Congress be free to forge national solutions to national problems.” That’s policy, baby! Moreover, it encompasses a philosophy that places technocratic problem-solving above upholding limited government. With the coming decision, a new era will have fully dawned for the United States of America—even if Obamacare is later legislatively repealed.

Prediction 3: The Supreme Court Ruling Will Turn Obamacare Into One of the Election’s Biggest Issues: With the Supreme Court legally validating Obamacare, the law will become a huge political issue in the 2012 election. But even though majorities of people oppose the law currently, this will not redound to President Obama’s substantial detriment. To the contrary, people like a winner. Besides, many people today believe that what is “legal” is also “right.” Thus, the Supreme Court’s ruling will improve the law’s popularity, or at the very least, make people resigned to an Obamacare future.

Prediction 4: Obamacare Opponents Will Not Have Sufficient Electoral Success to Repeal the Law Legislatively in 2013: The only way Obamacare will be fully repealed in 2013 is for all of the following to transpire: the president is not reelected; the law’s opponents win a supermajority in the Senate (filibusters, don’t you know); and, opponents win the House. At most, only two out of three of those will happen. I predict only one.
 

Other Issues

I thought it was important to explain the bases of my predictions about Obamacare at some length, so I will be very brief in the rest of my prognosticating:

Assisted Suicide: This will be a big year in the assisted suicide battle internationally.

1. No state legislature will legalize assisted suicide.
    
2. The United Kingdom’s Parliament will not legalize assisted suicide.
    
3. Swiss “suicide tourism” will continue to make the news by growing increasingly radical in scope, perhaps including the suicide of someone who is mentally ill.
    
4. Massachusetts Voters Will Vote Yes to Legalize Assisted Suicide. (Some of my anti-assisted suicide colleagues will be angry at me for this prediction, stating we must always keep a positive face. I argue that the MA initiative can be beaten, but it will require opponents to pull out every stop. Let this prediction alarm us into a maximum effort.)
    
5. The Supreme Court of British Columbia will rule that there is a constitutional right to assisted suicide, forcing Canada’s Supreme Court to take up the case. The ultimate decision will not come until 2013.
    

Human Cloning/Stem Cell Research: Stem cell research has lost its punch as a public issue, and I expect 2012 to be very much like 2011. In other words, no new dramatic developments, with the possible exception of a human cloning breakthrough.
 

Miscellaneous: A few of these, like my IVF prediction, are easy. But I decided to go out on a few limbs:

1. IVF will continue to cause controversy as the boundaries and propriety of using the technique are applied in ever more radical ways. No regulations placing ethical parameters on assisted reproduction will be passed in the USA.
    
2. At least one state will permit organ donors to receive some form of compensation, disguised as expense reimbursement.
    
3. Scientists will grow primordial gametes from human stem cells.
    

Well, I’m exhausted and disheartened. But be of good cheer. In answer to Scrooge’s memorable question from A Christmas Carol, these are not the things that must be, but what might be. Facts change and the future remains fluid until it happens. If you don’t like the picture I have painted, work to prove me wrong. Please.

 
Wesley J. Smith, J.D., Special Consultant to the CBC, is a senior fellow at the Discovery Institute’s Center on Human Exceptionalism and a consultant to the Patients Rights Council.

The premiere showing of Anonymous Father’s Day is coming up . . . January 29, 2012, at the Soho Gallery for Digital Art in New York City to be exact! You’ve helped us get this far, now we need a little more help from our friends to pull this off. Beginning January 29th at 7pm and running through February 1st, Anonymous Father’s Day will show FIVE times. And we all need to be on hand.

Which costs money . . . five days in the Big Apple is not cheap. But we aren’t rock stars (yet) so don’t need rock star treatment, just your help to fly in several of the people in the film, feed them a little, and get them a bed to lay their head on.

We are an award winning team, writing, directing, and producing this new high-impact global film and could sure use some Kickstarter funds to get us closer to our New York City Premiere. We’re giving you, and all our friends and supporters, just 3 weeks to raise $3,100. We’ve done it before and we can do it again, with a little love from our friends.

So please consider a gift to help us with the next phase of Anonymous Father’s Day. You can give through Kickstarter or through PayPal.

What Others are Saying

“Anonymous Father’s Day gives a voice to those adult children of Third Party Reproduction (TPR) who have a fundamental human right to information about their genetic history for their health and medical care, to their identity and family history, and to siblings they may have all over the world. The U.S. obsession with capitalist profit-generation has resulted in a major human rights violation of the children of TPR. It is a damning indictment that the U.S. is the only country in the world besides Somalia to have failed to ratify the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Jennifer Lahl’s film sheds much needed light on an ever-growing population ignored and too often silenced by society.”
— Kathleen Sloan, Feminist, human rights advocate, and author, National Organization for Women (NOW)

“So absorbing I watched it twice . . . a profound documentary”
— Jill Stanek, nurse turned speaker, columnist, and blogger, a national figure in the effort to protect innocent human life

“Anonymous Father’s Day should be required viewing for anyone considering donating or selling their sperm, as well as for anyone contemplating using this method of conceiving a child. The film beautifully reveals the stories of three donor-conceived adults whose needs have been entirely ignored by an industry that only considers the desires, money and frequent dishonesty of adults desperate to have a baby.”
— Kevin D., a sperm donor who has been denied a relationship with his biological child

It’s that time of year I dread every time it comes around. No, not the religious and New Year holidays. When I have to go back to my annual CBC predictions for the future year, and see whether I was truly prescient or a false prognosticator.

At least for 2011, I was a veritable Nostradamus—if you accept the rather unconvincing view that he actually did see the future. Or to use the American vernacular, I nailed it, baby. Big time!

Patient Protection and Affordability Act

I made several predictions about the PPACA, sometimes called Obamacare, and look how well I did:

1. 1. A bill repealing Obamacare will pass the House of Representatives, but will go nowhere in the Senate. Check.
    
2. 2. At least one court will declare the individual purchase mandate unconstitutional, probably two: Check. Two trial courts so ruled, and one Court of Appeals. Even though the law does not have a severance clause keeping it in effect even if part of the statute is found to be unconstitutional . . . the courts will permit the government to enforce other Obamacare provisions. Check.
    
3. 3.The House of Representatives will refuse to fund the regulatory process needed to implement the law. Not check, but in my defense, that was partly because the law was pre funded, so the horse was already out of the barn.
    
4. 4. Certain changes will be made to Obamacare around the edges. But these will not be substantive. Check.
    
5. 5. The ultimate fate of Obamacare will be decided in 2012. First by the Supreme Court’s decision regarding the individual purchase mandate . . . Second, Obamacare will also be prime issue in the 2012 presidential election, ultimately decided by which candidate wins. Check and probably check. The issue is now in the United States Supreme Court for ultimate adjudication, decision expected in June 2012, and whichever way it goes, political pundits predict the decision will place Obamacare square middle of the presidential campaign.
    

That’s four out of five, with the one wrong prediction not totally my fault since I was unaware of the pre funding provision of the law.

Stem Cell Research

Those who doubt my prophetic powers might shrug and say that my predictions about Obamacare were not all that tough. Indeed, one could say that they were imminently . . . predictable. Perhaps. But explain how well I did in seeing the future of stem cell research!

1. 1. The Court of Appeals Will Reverse [a trial court declaring embryonic stem cell research federal funding illegal] and allow Obama’s ESCR funding policy to remain in place. Check.
    
2. 2. The Dickey-Wicker Amendment that forbids federal funding of destructive embryo research will be renewed for 2011. Check.
    
3. 3. The Human ESCR Trials Will Show No Dramatic Results. Check. Unless one considers Geron Corporation’s abandoning both its human trial and the ESCR field altogether to be dramatic.
    
4. 4. Scientists will announce success in their ongoing attempts at human cloning. Check. It wasn’t full bore SCNT, but a similar process that caused the media to tout the coming of the clone age.
    
5. 5. Induced pluripotent stem cell research will move away from creating stem cells and to “direct reprograming,” that is, turning one kind of cell in to another without requiring the stem cell stage. Check. None other than Dolly the cloned sheep’s creator, Ian Wilmut, has stated that direct reprogramming is the future of regenerative medicine.
    
6. 6. Adult stem cell successes will mount but you don’t need me to tell you that. Check.
    

Well that’s a near perfect rating. My only miss was a throwaway line that Congress would try to pass cloning funding based on the research success. That didn’t happen, but I didn’t formally predict that, so I think I can claim a 100% rating.

Miscellaneous

I did really well with various and sundry predictions, too.

1. 1. An energetic attempt will be made to pass legislation legalizing assisted suicide in Vermont. It will be a close thing, but will fail. Check.
    
2. 2. Swiss suicide clinics will grow more brazen. The threatened Swiss crackdown on suicide tourism will fail to materialize. Check. In fact, Swiss voters approved the continued operation of the clinics.
    
3. 3. The European Court of Human Rights will declare assisted suicide to be a right in limited cases. Not check, but in my defense, the court has not yet ruled so I think I get a pass.
    
4. 4. Tasmania will come close to legalizing euthanasia, but won’t. Check, although the effort was merely postponed.
    
5. 5. Donald Berwick, the health care policy advocate who supports health care rationing, will not be confirmed as the head of Medicare. His temporary recess appointment will lapse, and he will leave government service. Check. In fact, Berwick’s last day at Medicare has come and gone.
    
6. 6. Attempts to regulate IVF in several states will be met by enraged opposition . . . None will pass. Quasi-check. Several states didn’t try, and the few proposals of which I am aware went nowhere.
    
7. 7. Octomom will get her own reality show. Not check. But that wasn’t a serious prediction.
    

All in all, I think I earned an A (he said modestly). If I only had the same predictive prowess about the stock market.

I should quit while I am ahead, but the CBC won’t let me. So next month, I will put my futurist credentials on the line and tell you what to expect in 2012. Now, where did I park the Back to the Future car?

We are very close to meeting our year end matching grant of $50,000.
Can you help put us over the finish line? If you believe in our cause, please consider giving NOW.

Your gift to Center for Bioethics and Culture is tax deductible.

It seems like momentum is growing and opportunities to engage are accelerating. This is all a bit nerve racking, but wonderful to know we are having an impact.

This year we have moved from the frying pan to the fire. Hardly a week now goes by without some media outlet wanting a comment or an interview. The national exposure on the implications of bioethics is driving much of this. Controversy creates news coverage. Thankfully I feel we are well prepared to speak with a clear voice to the issues. Some of the exposure has been emotionally draining, but I am encouraged that our voice is being heard.

With just the few days in this week left in 2011, I sincerely ask for your generous yearend financial support. I cannot do this any longer without the partnership of equally dedicated friends like you. Your giving is critically needed and very much appreciated!

Any gift you give by December 31 will qualify for the matching challenge. If you give $100, the match will make this $200. If you can give $1,000, the match will make this $2,000. Your gift triggers the matching amount. To access the entire $50,000 matching challenge, friends like you are needed in the next four days. Can I count on you?

You can give easily online right now. Simply visit the CBC website: CBC-Network.org. For any gift of $50 or more, I will gladly send you a copy of the newly released film, Anonymous Father’s Day. This is a must see film that is already attracting some very surprising and encouraging response—especially from men who have been sperm donors.

May 2012 be a wonderful year for you. We are on the verge of something significant, and grateful we have a front row seat! This will likely be the most challenging year ever for CBC, and I am eager to see what is in store in the New Year.

I eagerly await your year end response. Thank you for your financial partnership.

Jennifer Lahl

Your gift to Center for Bioethics and Culture is tax deductible.

We pray that you and your family will have a blessed weekend celebrating Christmas.

Merry Christmas from the Board of Directors and Staff of the Center for Bioethics and Culture

Your gift to Center for Bioethics and Culture is tax deductible.

The last two weeks have been full of the unexpected. Like you, I had a full schedule planned for last week—ending with an early family Christmas gathering in my home for over 20 guests this past Saturday.

About two weeks ago I got a call from The Dr. Oz Show producer, asking if I would fly to New York to participate in a feature segment on fertility. I would represent our position and concerns, but others guests would have considerably different perspectives and opinions.

In a matter of just a few days tickets were cut. Last Thursday morning I caught an early morning flight to New York for the taping of The Dr. Oz Show on Friday. Friday evening I caught a return flight so I could be home for the family Christmas gathering on Saturday.

The scheduled air date of this program is January 19. Knowing media as I do, this could change but I encourage you to mark your calendar now and I will get an update out in the week before—if things don’t change.

The taped segment was educational and informative. There was no contentious spirit. Dr. Oz was very engaged and personally seemed to be very supportive of our view. The interaction with guests that do not share our conviction was genuine and constructive. Now what was taped will be edited in post-production to meet the time restrictions. Pray that the editing will be “fair and balanced.”

Because of controversy earlier this fall it continues to amaze me how word is getting around that there is another side of the story that needs to be told than what is advocated by the secular bioethics industry. I am glad to be a spokesperson, but at times this is emotionally draining.

I am depending on your prayer support and generous financial partnership. What we are doing together is full of twists, turns, surprises, disappointments, and victories. Together we are seeing breakthroughs that I never dreamed possible even two years ago.

Gratefully,

Jennifer Lahl

PS — Help us meet the $50,000 matching grant. Every dollar you give will be matched with a dollar. If you give $50, they’ll give us another $50. You give $100, they will give us $100. Click below to give a gift that is doubled. Plus, for any gift that you give over $50, we will send you a free copy of Anonymous Father’s Day.

It has been quite a past six weeks and I wanted to share it with you because this month, if you give, your gift will be doubled.

You see, in November, I was interviewed by CNN and they aired a two minute news interview with me on the issue of eggsploitation.

Then, on top of that, CBC’s new film Anonymous Father’s Day was released on November 21. The response has been amazing.

Already a fertility doctor from the Midwest contacted me with his story. He shared with me that while attending medical school, he served as a sperm donor every two weeks for three years. He now realizes he could have in excess of 100 children that he has never met. Because his DNA is registered on a public site, he knows it is now only a matter of time before one or more of his children begin a search for their biological father and they find him. His past actions haunt him.

This is just one example of what we are hearing.

Because of gifts from people like yourself, this film and the open doors have happened.

So I wanted to let you know that it is critical to end the year strong to get the message out to make a difference in thousands of children’s lives who are asking “Who is my Daddy?”

And with great joy, I can share with you that friends of CBC have offered a $50,000 matching grant. For every dollar you give, they will match it with a dollar.

That’s right. If you give $50, they’ll give us another $50. You give $100, they will give us $100. You can see what I mean – just click here to give a gift that is doubled.

Plus, for any gift that you give over $50, we will send you a free copy of Anonymous Father’s Day.

Thank you so much for reading this.

Gratefully,

Jennifer Lahl

We at the CBC have much to give thanks for. First, we thank each and everyone of our readers for your faithful commitment to our work addressing the bioethical issues that most profoundly affect our humanity, especially issues that arise in the lives of the most vulnerable among us. We hope you have been helped by our emails, web sites, films, events, and resources.

We are humbled and grateful for those that support our efforts with your financial gifts, which allow our important work to go forward.

We are also thankful for the relationships we have with other organizations we are privileged to work with each year.

Most importantly, we are thankful to God for his gift of life.

Happy Thanksgiving